by Eight Thirty Seven with assistance from J-Dub and Jason from Indiana
Week one in the NFL was a complete shit show which featured teams that simply couldn’t pace themselves to just about every variable degree. The Colts lost a game in which they were shut out for an entire half with one of the best quarterbacks in the league. The Redskins probably could have had a win against the Dolphins, but let it slip away after a very poor defensive showing in the fourth quarter. And the Texans probably could have came back and beat the Chiefs, but after three quarters without a single touchdown scored they couldn’t come back even though KC was essentially worthless in the second half of that one. After all that, I haven’t even bothered to mention how the Rams basically snuck out of their own living room with a game that they almost let slip away but finally won at the last moment. It was messy indeed, but now that it’s over it’s time to move on. Let’s take a look forward to what we think might happen in week two of the NFL season.
The J-Dub “Outhouse or Penthouse?” Gambling Campaign
Last week, we told you that fellow blogger J-Dub would play the lines for a full season, and see what he can do with $2,500 bankroll. Well, the first week’s results were promising; after tabulated wins and losses, and of course, paying “the juice,” the man behind Dubsism finished ahead by $209. That brings the season total to $2,709, so let’s see what Week Two brings.
Denver Broncos (1-0) +3 at Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) (42)
The line will suggest that after you remove the standard three point adjustment for home field advantage that these two teams are equal. Yeah, here’s the thing about that…Peyton Manning had a passer rating south of 60 in the Baltimore game, and only threw for 175 yards in a contest where they only won the game by six points against a team who didn’t have a single defensive touchdown. I can honestly say that right now the Chiefs should be favored by more in this game, and without question they are a better team. I do think Kansas City not scoring a single point in the second half against the Texans last week is a bit of a red flag, but so far this year they haven’t had a guy show up to the practice facility with a loaded handgun and blow his fucking head off so that’s a huge plus. Look for Jeremy Maclin to be double-teamed a lot, and look for the Chiefs to cover the spread. Take the over on the point total…it might seem risky but trust me if you look at this one a little closer both of these teams are primed for a big offensive day.
837’s Prediction: Chiefs 27, Broncos 20
J-Dub: $25 on Kansas City, $75 over
Jason from Indiana: Kansas City
New England Patriots (1-0) EVEN at Buffalo Bills (1-0) (45)
The even line of this game makes it very interesting, and extremely dangerous. The Bills smacked Indianapolis around at home and may have proved that they’re the real deal, but this is the game that counts. The Patriots gave us more of what we’re used to last Thursday, and if Buffalo wants to show us that they are ready to get to the next level we’re likely to not believe them unless they win this game. I don’t think it will happen, but it will be closer than a lot of people might expect.
837’s Prediction: Patriots 23, Bills 21
J-Dub: $20 on Buffalo, $50 under
Jason from Indiana: New England
Tennessee Titans (1-0) EVEN at Cleveland Browns (0-1) (41.5)
This season couldn’t have possibly started out any worse for the Browns, as McCown was put out of the game with a concussion and Johnny Football entered the game having little positive effect on what has become a very poor Jets defense. For the Titans, they started out by scoring 42 points against the Bucs, and having Marcus Mariota get a win in his first NFL game. But it’s pretty clear that the oddsmakers have little faith in MM, as they slapped Tennessee with an even line against a team that might not have a receiving touchdown for months. This game is too depressing to even think about, but if I had to pick something other than my own nose I’d say I like Tennessee by a couple and avoid the point total on this one.
837’s Prediction: Titans 22, Cleveland 20
J-Dub: $40 on Tennessee
Jason from Indiana: Tennessee
Houston Texans (0-1) +3 at Carolina Panthers (1-0) (40.5)
I have to admit, the Texans coming out and playing as poorly as they did in the first half of last week’s loss against the Chiefs was a little upsetting. But at some point they are going to have to realize that JJ Watt is only one human being, and now they are headed into Carolina a three point underdog against a team that only put up twenty point against Jacksonville last week. The Texans are a lock to cover the spread here, but overall they have a lot of problems and I think I may have just pinpointed their biggest one: They’re about one great player short of becoming a ten win football team. With Watt in town, they need that one dude to step up and decide there’s room for another star in the fourth biggest market in the country. The only problem is, that guy doesn’t play for the Texans.
837’s Prediction: Texans 26, Panthers 17
J-Dub: $100 on Houston
Jason from Indiana: Carolina
Arizona Cardinals (1-0) EVEN at Chicago Bears (0-1) (45)
Nothing would make me happier than seeing the Bears get completely splattered at home by a defense that means business. Neither of these two teams are going to make the playoffs because of their offensive inconsistencies, but so help me God I’m actually pissed I’m going to miss this football game. Arizona still has a long way to go to prove the first half of last year was no fluke, and if this is an even line you know something’s suspect here. For Chicago, they’re going to start to take a lot of radio heat if they can’t do a better job of turning red zone visits into touchdowns. I’m taking Arizona by a few, but I wouldn’t bet the farm here and the point total is way too close for me to whip out my wallet.
837’s Prediction: Cardinals 24, Bears 21
J-Dub: $50 on Arizona
Jason from Indiana: Arizona
San Diego Chargers (1-0) +3 at Cincinnati Bengals (1-0) (45.5)
I’m trying really hard to say this without sounding like a dick: I hate the fucking Cincinnati Bengals. When I looked at the week one games and saw they were playing Oakland, I swear to God the first thing out of my mouth was “Great, here we go with this shit again…”. I see no way the Bengals being successful does the NFL one ounce of good. When Joe Flacco is more interesting than your main guy, you know you’ve got a serious problem. The Chargers beat a decent Lions team, and as we’ve seen in recent years seem to have no real opposition to playing Cincy at home or away. Philip Rivers leads the NFL in passing yards after week one, and I’m really hoping his success continues. I can’t bear to live in a world where the Bengals go 10-6 or 11-5 again. The sheer thought of it makes my head hurt. I’m taking SD to win a solid road game, although it won’t be easy. Don’t play the ponies with the point total.
837’s Prediction: Chargers 27, Bengals 20
J-Dub: $20 on Cincinnati
Jason from Indiana: Cincinnati
Detroit Lions (0-1) +2.5 at Minnesota Vikings (0-1) (43)
The Vikings were picked by a lot of these meathead analysts to be one of the teams that was supposed to surprise us and have a breakout year, but they certainly took a week off to start the season. If you had the patience to sit through the late Monday night game in which the Vikes were eaten alive by San Francisco, you’ll know that it was probably one of the most boring football games to ever be aired in primetime. Part of that was due to the fact that Minnesota couldn’t do a damn thing on offense, and I have a feeling that if Bridgewater can’t get his shit together we’re going to see plenty of similar results in the near future. Detroit is going to really step this one up, because everybody on that team knows if they start 0-2 there’s no way in hell they are going to win ten in a row and make the postseason. I like Detroit in this one, and go ahead and take the over.
837’s Prediction: Lions 34, Vikings 13
J-Dub: $25 on Detroit
Jason from Indiana: Minnesota
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-1) +11.5 at New Orleans Saints (0-1) (47)
I told you the Saints were in for a rough year, and as evidenced by their week one loss against Arizona I wasn’t fucking kidding in the least bit. They were useless in the red zone, and what do you know it – Drew Brees threw for well over 300 yards in yet another game that they lost. So you would have to assume any team facing them that is eleven and a half point underdogs must suck monkey balls, and ladies and gentlemen I give you the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tampa is so bad they lost a home game against a rookie quarterback by touchdowns. Let that sink in for a second. If you’ve stopped laughing, you’ll also be delighted to know that his passer rating was 64, and that the two interceptions looked totally ridiculous on TV. So even though this will be a terrible football game, I like the Saints to cover, and I’d take the point total on the over because both of these teams’ defenses are awful to an almost mind-blowing degree. Dubsism probably thinks I’m nuts here, but he also got on social media last week and said he listens to that Seven Mary Three song so you have to factor that into his questionable decision making skills.
837’s Prediction: Saints 36, Bucs 13
J-Dub: TRAP GAME OF THE WEEK, PART I: To bet this game, I have to believe that Jamies Winston can lead the Bucs to three scores of any sort, and that the Saints can score more than 30 points. I wouldn’t bet this with your money.
Jason from Indiana: Tampa Bay
Atlanta Falcons (1-0) +1 at New York Giants (0-1) (51)
Watching the Giants throw away that game Sunday night in Dallas was devastating, but by now I’m used to such disappointment. The second they kicked that field goal, I knew it was alll over. That’s because when it comes to giving up those fifteen to twenty-five yard passing plays over the middle, New York’s secondary and linebackers are every bit as bad as the teams who picked in the top ten of this past year’s draft. This spells serious trouble as Matt Ryan heads into town to beat the snot out of that defense in what I’m assuming is going to be a very long and painful game to watch if you’re a Giants fan.
837’s Prediction: Falcons 31, Giants 20
J-Dub: DOG OF THE WEEK: There’s just no reason to bet this game, and Vegas isn’t giving me a reason to lay down my hard-earned Franklins. I wouldn’t bet this game with Donald Trump’s money.
Jason from Indiana: New York Giants
San Francisco 49ers (1-0) +5.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers (0-1) (45)
For me, there was no more telling moment about the Pittsburgh Steelers in week one than about halfway through the third quarter of the New England game. They were granted 1st and goal from the one after a horseshit pass interference call when they were down 21 to 11 in that game. Had they been able to score, they would have flipped the momentum in their direction instantaneously and shrunken the lead down to a field goal. Instead, they ate a dick and couldn’t get in the end zone. San Francisco looked good on Monday night, despite simultaneously looking stupid in those awful black and red uniforms. They won’t be able to get over on Big Ben as easily though, and although Pittsburgh won’t cover the spread they will get the W. Point total will be the over, but it doesn’t look as delicious as I’m probably making it sound.
837’s Prediction: Steelers 26, 49ers 23
J-Dub: $50 on Pittsburgh
Jason from Indiana: San Francisco
St. Louis Rams (1-0) -3.5 at Washington Redskins (0-1) (41)
All honesty at the dinner table, the Rams almost blew it last week. They let the Seahawks creep back into the game, and were very lucky to come away with an overtime win. That better not happen this week on the road against a Washington team that doesn’t know its ass from a hole in the ground, as the Redskins controlled the better part of that Dolphins game only to shit the bed in the fourth quarter. All truth told, this should be a very easy game for St. Louis. The Redskins are pathetic on offense and the Rams’ D is going to all up in Kirk Cousins’ face all afternoon. I hope that Foles can fix some of the mistakes he made in week one, and goes into that dump and just fuck’s Washington’s world up worse than every single president we’ve had since Jimmy Carter. So for that reason, I’m taking St. Louis to cover, and to cover big. Blowout alert, but avoid the point total because I’m still not entirely convinced the Redskins will even score a touchdown.
837’s Prediction: Rams 32, Redskins 6
J-Dub: $300 on St. Louis
Jason from Indiana: St. Louis
Baltimore Ravens (0-1) -7 at Oakland Raiders (0-1) (43)
Baltimore suffered a huge blow to their season last week in Denver where they lost Terrell Suggs for the year with an injury that is likely to change the remainder of his career. So this is a perfect time for them to blow one of their eight road games on Oakland by steamrolling the Raiders, which shouldn’t be much of a challenge. Oakland as a fan base is a very interesting social experiment: They act all hard core, paint their faces, and wear spiked shoulder pads in the stadium before eventually stabbing some poor Chargers fan in the parking lot. Of course, the joke is on them in the end because on the field they’re fucking butters. Total butters bitches. Can’t figure a damn thing out and home field advantage doesn’t even matter to their players. So I like the Ravens to cover this spread easily, but I wouldn’t mess with the total. But seriously, these butters bitches…
837’s Prediction: Ravens 29, Raiders 15
J-Dub: DISASTER OF THE YEAR AWARD: Vegas knows they can’t make a line big enough to stop a flood of Baltimore money coming in, so they puss out and do something I haven’t seen since the week after Bernard Pollard re-structured Tom Brady’s knee.
Jason from Indiana: Baltimore
Miami Dolphins (1-0) -7 at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1) (51)
Miami wouldn’t have gotten away with last week if they were playing any other team than Washington. Thankfully for them, the only other team in the league who can collapse on a dime like that is the Jaguars, whom they’ll be playing on Sunday. Tannehill is still average, and until he gives me a reason to think otherwise that’s where he’ll stay. He’s a .500 career guy, and he likely always will be. But holy fuck Jacksonville is bad. You almost have to put this game on at four PM – nobody would watch it at one. Dolphins cover…I really like the point total on this one to be way under, seems like Vegas is giving away money here at 51.
837’s Prediction: Dolphins 27, Jaguars 14
J-Dub: $200 on Miami
Jason from Indiana: Jacksonville
Dallas Cowboys (1-0) +5.5 at Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) (55)
When Dubs first sent me his bits for this week, I was without hesitation in the realization that he couldn’t be anymore right about not putting any money on either team. And he was right about it being a high scoring game, which it will be for sure. Dallas is suspect because the Giants threw the game away last week, and a lot of people are probably wondering why the Giants were winning by six points with only a minute left. That’s a great question, and with Dez Bryant now hurt, there is always the chance that their offensive production could come to a screeching halt very quickly. As for Philadelphia, Sam Bradford said the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard a quarterback say after a loss. He smiled to the media and said that in the second half that he was “having fun”. That is proof right there that the Eagles fucked up in the Nick Foles trade. Bradford will never have the killer instinct it takes to win ten games in this league. “Having fun” is not part of the gig. This is a business, and I can guarantee that Chip Kelly isn’t having fun looking at how you’re tied with the Redskins in the standings. All that said, the Cowboys are really shaky right now and I have a feeling this will be the weakest showing they crank out this year. I like Philly to cover, and the point total is simply too close to call so I’d avoid it.
837’s Prediction: Eagles 33, Cowboys 22
J-Dub: TRAP GAME OF THE WEEK, PART II: There’s way too much temptation to make the over-reaction bet on either team here. $50 over.
Jason from Indiana: Dallas
Seattle Seahawks (0-1) +4 at Green Bay Packers (1-0) (48.5)
The Seahawks had a rough start last year, and came one stupid play call away from winning the whole fucking thing. I have this theory that they are going to use that as a basis for the mentality which suggests it’s okay if they biff the first couple games of the season. In this case it might be, but at the moment they are making a litany of play calling blunders and other assorted offensive errors. The fact that Darrell Bevell has been allowed to keep his job is something that I plan to discuss in detail with Neil Roberts of Sports with Neil here in the future if they can’t figure things out. To be fair, Neil called this on a live radio show I did with him in early fall of 2014 and he really hasn’t let up…can you blame him? Last week Green Bay looked every bit like the team who can give you 31 solid points a game like they did against the Bears, but they also gave up 23 points to Jay Cutler so there are still plenty of defensive questions there. Wilson still hasn’t hit his stride yet, so this is the perfect time for the Packers to build some defensive momentum and I believe they’ll take this one at home with no real issue. I like the Packers to cover the spread here easily, and I have the over but I wouldn’t put any money on it if I were you.
837’s Prediction: Packers 30, Seahawks 19
J-Dub: $20 on Green Bay
Jason from Indiana: Green Bay
New York Jets (0-1) +7.5 at Indianapolis Colts (0-1) (47)
It’s a little puzzling to me how the Jets ended up in a primetime game. If you’re ESPN, of course you want the Colts but why the Jets? Perhaps they knew something we didn’t, as the only one of these two teams with a W doesn’t have a horseshoe on their helmets. The Colts struggled like a motherfucker against Buffalo last week, but I don’t expect that to continue against a team that could only muster 21 points against Cleveland. Listen, the Jets are terrible. This is a road game for them, and they have a myriad of false confidence issues on a team that is light years away from justifiably being able to have any. They’re a mess on every level, which means this is a perfect time for the Colts to run across them to get legitimate confidence back and take advantage of the fact that Houston has already lost a game. But so have they, so they’ve got plenty of work to do and this is a great place to start. I like Indy to cover with little challenge, and the point total is a crapshoot here so stay away from it, because after all it is the Jets.
837’s Prediction: Colts 34, Jets 17
J-Dub: $20 on the NY Jets, $50 over
Jason from Indiana: Indianapolis
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