2016 Conference Championship Weekend Preview: Death Comes Ripping

by Eight Thirty Seven with assistance from J-Dub and Jason from Indiana

We’re just a few short weeks away from the Super Bowl, and this past weekend four very good teams bit the dust. Seattle got smoked out of the box, their comeback being too little too late. Pittsburgh threw away the Denver game because they couldn’t do anything in the red zone, but they were missing the best receiver in football due to injuries. This same fate also plagued the Packers when Randall Cobb left the game in the first quarter with a chest injury, and even with a second improbable Hail Mary at the end of regulation they never saw the ball in overtime and lost almost immediately. Andy Reid’s poor clock management at the end of the Kansas City/New England game sent the Chiefs packing, which is a sentence that should only shock you if you happen to be reading this whilst sticking a fucking fork in an electrical outlet. In less than thirty hours death became very real for the 2015-16 NFL seasons of those four teams, proving that sometimes your aspirations are just dreams.

I used to be in this death metal band called From The Wreckage and we played two cover songs. One was Black Flag’s “My War” (because it’s easily the best song in the entire BF catalog) and the other was a Misfits song called “Death Comes Ripping“. The latter was not only a blast to play live, but a very stern and powerful reminder that death is a thing which strikes with a very sudden blow. Every single player on the four remaining playoff rosters legitimately believe they are headed to Santa Clara in a couple of weeks, and half of them are dead wrong. On Sunday afternoon or evening death will ripping through their dream like a bat out of hell, and hopefully for their sake that shitty Meatloaf album of the same name won’t be playing as it happens.

The Super Bowl is almost like an entirely different season itself, so the grim reaper basically comes for almost all of the NFL on this Sunday night. Last year we saw an unbelievably amazing NFC Championship game where the Seattle Seahawks assisted the Green Bay Packers in choking away what looked like the easiest road conference championship win in playoff history, and then something that sort of maybe a little bit resembled a football game shortly thereafter. This year we’ve got two really, really good ones, and won’t be stuck with results that end up with the Colts hanging up a banner that pretty much reads “At least we tried”. But what the fuck do I know? Not a whole hell of a lot, as 36 years into this slow struggle towards death I’m lucky if I can put together a rational thought before noon any day of the week. That’s why I have someone who can cut to the chase and give you the information that you want in fewer words, and that man is the man, the myth, the legend we all have come to know as J-Dub.

J-Dub:  Championship weekend brings us to the brink of a bunch of knuckleheads who know nothing about football planning Super Bowl parties during which they will spend more time talking about fucking commercials than they will about what ever they see on the field.

With that, let’s take a hard look at the team’s involved in this week’s Super Bowl Semi-final.  I’ll start with what Eight Thirty Seven and I orginally said about each team, then I’ll roll that into what you might expect from a piece with the word “Preview” in the title. Then comes where I’m putting the cash.

Arizona Cardinals: What We Originally Said:

Why They Can Win:

Much like Carolina, the Cardinals have a head coach who is light years ahead of the rest of the NFL. Specifically, this means instead of imitating or trying to accuse Bill Belichick, Bruce Arians has taken it upon himself to turn the Cardinals into what could be a perennial killing machine for the next decade. Carson Palmer isn’t going to play until he’s 43 years old, but they are going to milk that goat for every cent of the 45 million dollars they paid to prepare it for slaughter. Nearly a fifth of their starters made the Pro Bowl, and we’re sure none of them could give a rat fuck about making plans for that trip. This team is on a mission to win the Super Bowl, and everything other than that matters to them about as much what those twats on “The View” think matters to Vladimir Putin.

Why They Can’t Win:

After Carson Palmer got hurt last year, the Cardinals didn’t just go into a tailspin; they went full-on “Challenger.’ They got dropped in the first round by a team with a losing record, and mustered an offensive performance as weak as the French Army in 1940. Palmer is 36 years old and has had two knee surgeries, which means the Cardinals are one hit on a guy who’s been on the cover of Sports Illustrated walking on an underwater treadmill away from “Challenger II: This Time, It’s Everywhere.”

What’s Changed:

Carson Palmer has gone from a guy on the periphery of the MVP discussion back to being Carson Palmer.  He threw two interceptions so horror-filled against the Packers I’m surprised they aren’t featured in a Friday the 13th remake. If he continues that, the Cardinals become just another annoying bird J-Dub blasts out of the trees in his back yard when their incessant caterwauling wakes him at 5:45 a.m. from yet another bourbon-induced “woke up in his clothes again” moment.

Carolina Panthers: What We Originally Said:

Why They Can Win:

Not enough can be said about the job Ron Rivera has done with a team that made last year’s postseason with a losing record. He’s got the league MVP whom most writers thought would never succeed as a pocket passer, and not only is he getting the job done (albeit not in the flashiest manner), but his ability to run the ball is a key part of the Panthers’ success. In other words, he’s a bigger, stronger Randall Cunningham, which means he can actually climb the mountain rather than having his career end with a whimper in Baltimore.

Josh Norman went ape-shit on Odell Beckham because Norman is a bad-ass and is having a career year. Luke Keuchly got beat one play in the Atlanta game where he somehow ended up having to cover Julio Jones, but the rest of the year he’s been flawless. Collectively, the Panthers have had the perfect balance of offense and defense to succeed, and now that they don’t have the “undefeated” thing hanging over their head, they can focus on the goal of becoming Super Bowl champions.

Why They Can’t Win:

If they don’t win the Super Bowl, it will be because they got beat on the way there. Nobody in the AFC (more on that in a bit) can hang with this team. I know, any thing can happen in a one-game scenario, but if you had to lay your next house payment on Carolina versus anybody from the “Almost Football Conference,” tell me who you’ve got?

Toward the end of the season, teams started to figure out the Panthers on both ends. They almost lost to the Saints and the Giants, which should probably disqualify them from the Super Bowl altogether. But this is a league based on actual results, which is why anybody still thinks any team in the AFC is still relevant. The fact the Panthers did lose to a Falcons team they shut out 38-0 just two weeks prior gives everybody hope, but like we said, hope is not a strategy.

What’s Changed

Time to go old school here.  If you are under 50, you likely don’t remember the old show “To Tell The Truth.” To make a long story short, this was all about three people pretending to be the same person who had some interesting story, and it was the task of a panel of “celebrities” to guess who was the “real deal.”  The hook came at the end when it was announced “Would the real (insert name here) please stand up?”

Would the real Carolina Panthers please stand up?  Is the real Carolina team the one who gorilla-stomped the league on its way to a 15-1 record, or is it the one who got man-handled by the imploding Atlanta Falcons, or it is the one who checked out for the second half against the Seahawks?  Don’t tell me we need to dig up Kitty Carlisle to tell us.

Denver Broncos: What We Originally Said:

Why They Can Win:

The AFC might as well stand for “Absolute Fucking Crap,” because there isn’t a single great team in this entire conference. It doesn’t require greatness to be at the top of the AFC heap; it merely means somebody has to be a better grade of crap. There really isn’t a better way to describe the Broncos.

Having said that, Denver’s defense isn’t crap. Denver’s defense has been making Denver omelets (Mmmmmm…omelets) out of opposing offenses all season. They rush the quarterback as well as anybody else in the league.

Why They Can’t Win:

The answer is contained in the following, sung to the tune of the “Nationwide” jingle: “Denver Broncos just fucked up.”

Gary Kubiak is trying in Denver to rebuild the offense with which he won a Super Bowl in Baltimore. A dominant, “ball-control” running game married to a six-foot-six rocket-armed quarterback who is just mobile enough to make the play-action game effective. In preparation for the play-offs, Kubiak just benched that quarterback for the quarterback of Christmas past.

We could very easily cite the first year Peyton Manning came to Denver, where he blew the divisional playoff game at the hands of the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens in two overtimes. Or we could really get nasty and talk about how Ol’ Horseface got smoked by the Seahawks 43-8 in what has to have been one of the most embarrassing Super Bowl performances since Tony Eason forgot what the color red looked like in January 1985. And if we wanted to go even further than that, we could talk about how they lost yet another divisional playoff game at home to the team who hired the guy who Manning’s old franchise had hired to take his job.

What’s Changed

Peyton Manning is back under center for the Broncos. The key here is ” back under center.”  Manning is clearly running Gary Kubiak’s offense, which doesn’t require the quarterback to make plays to win the game. The “stat guys” will tell me Manning didn’t throw for 300 yards and didn’t throw a touchdown pass, which is why “stat guys” are idiots.

New England Patriots:What We Originally Said:

Why They Can Win:

Two words: Tom Fucking Brady. Yeah, we know that’s three words, but the average Patriots’ fan can’t count that high anyway. Face it, Brady is the definition of that smarmy fuckwad of a guy everybody outside of greater Boston hates with the intensity of Chipotle-fueled intestinal distress, but the fact is he single-handedly changes the standard conventions of NFL football.  As we all know, the New England Patriots are no stranger to the Super Bowl. They’ve been to the big game six out of the last fifteen years, and they’ve won four of them. Tom Brady is still playing killer football, and his age isn’t slowing him down (although injuries are) as the gap widens in what’s left of the Brady/Manning discussion with every passing day.

Why They Can’t Win:

Jesus may have walked across the water once…but it was once. There’s a limited number of miracles that can be pulled off, and even St. Thomas A-Brady-ius is running out of his. The fact the Pats a 2-4 in their last six games tells you that. The fact the Patriots offensive line is made of lunch meat is another tell. If the Patriots season were a craps game, they’ve got a low point and they’ve tossed about 11 straight passes. But “snake eyes” is coming…sooner rather than later.

No Patriot fan wants to admit this, but there’s no real excuse for losing to the Eagles and the Dolphins. The Patriots were the only play-off team the Eagles beat, and the Eagles also lost to the fucking Dolphins. The Eagles lost TWICE to a quarterback who forgot to spike the ball before halftime. Three days after they got knocked out of the play-offs, they canned Chip Kelly, who might have been most incompetent person working in the NFL outside of Robert Kraft’s sobriety coach.

There are bucketfuls of kids in the Philippines who are considering child prostitution as a legitimate career option because they can’t live with the guilt that comes with stitching Eagles jerseys. The Patriots’ vulnerability exposed in that loss will linger throughout the play-offs because it’s pretty obvious there is larger issues in New England beyond just injuries or “having a bad game.”

Doubt that? Tell us another play-off team that gave up 300 passing yards to Ryan Tannehill. Case closed.

What’s Changed

Nothing.  Absolutely fucking nothing. 

I simply can’t believe how not impressed I have been by the Patriots this entire season, which is odd considering where they are. Granted, I know part of that is the fact that this entire league has been putting a shit product on the field this whole season.  Like I’ve said before, to be the best in a shit league doesn’t require greatness; it simply means being a better grade of shit.

Obviously, based on previous writings of mine, this “shit” thing doesn’t apply to Tom Brady, who is the sole reason why this team is where it is. He’s still overcoming the exceptionally mediocre nature of this team. That’s why the Patriot offense continues to get the job done.

It’s the Patriot defense which is a mess.  You can tell me all you want about injuries, but even healthy that unit has three guys who don’t suck, and eight guys who can all hit red-line levels of suckitude with little or no notice.  This is why the Patriots are looking like a “scratch and dent” version of the 80’s San Diego Chargers…a team with a Hall-of-Fame quarterback who will throw the ball 70 times a game on a team that couldn’t spell defense if you spotted them the “D” and the “fense.”

I can honestly say that while it’s chalk to have all four teams that got byes in the conference championships, every single one of these teams deserves to be here. While I can’t stand the Broncos as a franchise and would rather watch footage of Wall Street day traders barbecue homeless people in front of their few remaining family members instead of seeing Denver succeed, they have a hell of a pass rush that even a San Diego Chargers fan who got a Raiders tattoo because he lost a bet could appreciate and they earned their spot. I don’t think they deserve home field advantage, but then again not all of my takes on the National Football League are popular. (I can’t believe that the online petition I set up to have Roger Goddell eaten by mountain lions while death row prisoners beat him with hammers was removed. For shame, change.org…) 

Personally, I couldn’t be more excited that conference championship weekend is on its way. If my calculations are correct, this will be the first day I’ve had off of work since the early seventies and I’ll be more than ready to sit on my ass and not set up Gmail accounts for people while guacamole falls onto my lap. This is Conference Championship Weekend in the NFL, and when Sunday ends death will have came ripping for two of these four teams.

NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend Preview: Preparing the Livestock for Slaughter

by Eight Thirty Seven with assistance from J-Dub and Jason from Indiana

While I’m an animal lover, I also adore meat. It’s just fucking delicious. But most of us don’t get to experience how the many different forms of that wonderful delicacy make their way to our dinner plates. A lot of us city folk probably aren’t aware of the many processes which are necessary for us to assume our carnivorous nature on a daily basis. Although I’m one of those city kids I’m slowly beginning to learn how this is done, and from everything that has been described to me I’m sure that the smaller and the more harmless the animal is the more difficult it is to kill when you’re new to the game. For fryer and stew rabbits, it’s grisly but quite simple:  Most of them meet their fate by a farm hand coming up from behind them and breaking their necks. It sounds horrid, but it’s probably one of the easiest ways to go and beats the hell out of constantly applying for a job where if you get it you’ll spend the resurrection of Christ delivering pastel colored eggs to spoiled white kids. For goats, you have to tie their back legs together and hang them by those digits before slitting their throats. If you’re not sure what this sounds like, listen to any album Yoko Ono has ever sang lead vocals on with the exception of Double Fantasy and then trust me…you’ll know. I’m never seen anyone butcher a cow before, but I would assume since you can’t use the head for anything that you just stick a half stick of dynamite under their neck, light it and then plug your ears before running the other way very quickly.

But I guess that’s why I’m not a farmer. Instead, I spend a majority of January analyzing the NFL postseason instead of playing the grim reaper to a bunch of livestock. For my burger buyin’ bucks, there’s no better complete weekend of NFL football than the divisional playoffs. For the most part every team there has proved that they deserve to be two wins away from the Super Bowl, but there are typically very clear underdogs…i.e. plenty of future meat wandering around the yard. Four teams will advance to the conference championship, and the other four are eventually headed to the back of a Carl’s Jr. where you’ll be charged eleven and a half dollars for a quarter-pound slice of their dignity. There’s going to be blood all over the acreage, and half of these teams are fucking dead meat.

During last week’s Wild Card round, the Bengals cause the ASPCA to throw a fit after their sudden death and the Vikings committed suicide. The Seahawks got really lucky, and the Steelers got away with a win even though they came very close to having to shoot that horse. Since we’re discussing meat and death, I figured now would be the perfect time to drag in J-Dub and see which slaughterhouse what’s left of his bank will be headed to come Sunday evening.

J-Dub:  The theme for this week is “reputation bet.”  You can’t tell me there isn’t a lot of certain teams’ reputation having an effect on some of these lines. I’ll explain as I walk through these picks.

So let’s head out back to find the old grey goose and see who’s headed to the processing plant in the 2016 First Order Historians NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend Preview:  Preparing the Livestock for Slaughter. 

Week Seventeen NFL Preview

by Eight Thirty Seven with assistance from J-Dub and Jason from Indiana

Well, it’s finally here. This will be the last week of the NFL season for 20 of the thirty-two teams in the league, and nobody could be happier to hear about that than yours truly. I can’t wait until next week…I don’t have to write about the Saints, Lions, Titans, or any other team that doesn’t warrant my attention because in most cases they haven’t earned it.

It’s also the end of the regular season line for the J-Dub Gambling Challenge, and although it’s been a rough year for him in that regard the Dubsism household is thrilled about the Eagles recent firing of Chip Kelly. Let’s see what kind of a mood he’s in after hearing the promising news that shithead won’t be back to ruin another year of Eagles football.

J-Dub:  For the last regular-season installment of this challenge, we’re focusing only on the games that still have meaning. Some of these play-off scenarios have the complexity of nuclear physics, and they have likelihoods somewhere between metaphysical certitude and J-Dub getting elected Pope while getting a “handy” from all fourteen Kardahsians and Hillary Clinton. To reflect that, we’re listing these games in order of a blend of likely outcomes and complexities.

Week Sixteen NFL Preview

by Eight Thirty Seven with assistance from J-Dub and Jason from Indiana

Obviously there’s an elephant in the room, and that zoo animal is the one game suspension handed down by the NFL to New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham after a helmet to helmet hit on Carolina Panthers cornerback Josh Norman in Sunday afternoon’s game. The helmet-to-helmet hit did warrant the suspension, but what I’m going to talk about for a second is the way the media covered all of the other stuff that was going on between those two before and after the whistle. A lot of people are crying about the lack of sportsmanship associated with these exchanges, and – simply put – those people need to shut the fuck up. Given the Antonio Brown scuffle in the previous week’s Bengals/Steelers game, this is the second week in a row that I’ve had to write about grown men slapping each other with open hands and it better be the last one. This is absolutely ludicrous from every conceivable angle, and keep in mind this is what happened when Goddell began to instruct his referees to flag everybody for everything. If you’re wondering why hockey’s ratings have gone up in recent years, it might have something to do with the fact that in hockey, two guys are able to settle their differences the way two guys used to be able to do that. I just think all of this is so weak, and not trying to defend Beckham’s headbutt, but since when is any team allowed to carry bats onto the field? I about jumped out of my shoes when I heard that shit, and you almost wonder how that was allowed to even go on in an NFL stadium. Any yahoo could have jumped onto the field, grabbed one of those bats, and no matter how small he was he would instantly become the most dangerous person on a sideline where nobody is wearing helmets. I’m just baffled by this story on so many levels.

Unfortunately I don’t have any time to continue this rant, because I have to head to the pawn shop and sell some of my guitars. Then I’m headed to Western Union in order to wire some money to Dubs, who has had quite a rough year to say the very least.

J-Dub:  It’s another week of limping toward the finish line for what has been a truly garbage NFL season, and that has nothing to do with winning and losing at the gambling challenge.  Seriously, this is a league where you can have a contender based on a future Hall of Fame quarterback, 6 other guys who don’t suck, and 46 guys who should be loading trucks at UPS. You have a league where the referees can’t figure out the fucking rules, and even if they did, they blow more calls than a Wal-Mart flip phone. And if that weren’t enough, now you have Will Smith making an anti-football movie featuring him doing dialog as Kamala, the Ugandan Giant.

Having said all that, I’m no quitter, so even though this league is now more painful to watch than drinking a gallon of gasoline and firing a flare gun up my own ass, I’ll keep burning my cash on it.

Week Fifteen NFL Preview

by Eight Thirty Seven with assistance from J-Dub and Jason from Indiana

Here we are three weeks from the end of another NFL season, and yet again we find ourselves in a situation where a team with a sub .500 record is atop their division. Actually that’s not true, but hold on a second…it’s even worse than that. The AFC South has two teams tied for the division lead that are each under .500, and the NFC East has three teams tied for first place that are also under .500. The argument could be made that not one of those four teams are going to provide playoff caliber entertainment. I hate to sound like a broken record, but isn’t the fact that this keeps coming up sort of more proof that it needs to be rectified? This shit again? Twice? I don’t need to see any more out of the Colts or the Redskins in order for me to know why I shouldn’t need to see more than the Colts and the Redskins. This is crazy, and there are better teams who will end up getting left out of the postseason for another year until the competition committee, the league and the players association can find a way to get their fucking ducks in a row. When it happens in one division, that’s one thing but in two? One in each conference? This is out of hand. Speaking of out of hand, let’s see where J-Dub is at with his “Might as well just burn the money” gambling challenge…

J-Dub:  The theme for the J-Dub Gambling Challenge could easily be “Breaking Even”  That doesn’t sound bad, until you realize there’s no way you can make money that way.  Imagine the Titanic just remaining half-sunk; you’re not going to die, but your pants are always wet. Having said that, let’s see how I can wet my pants this week.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7) +1.5 at St. Louis Rams (5-8)  (41)

The Buccaneers dropped a tough one to New Orleans this past Sunday, and the Rams pulled off a very uneventful win against the Lions at home. When this season started I was convinced that by now we’d be seeing a potential Lovie Smith firing, when in reality it’s become Jeff Fisher who might have the eject button pulled on his go kart before the year is over. Tampa is the better team right now, but St. Louis should still be on the tear they were back in late September and October and this one shouldn’t even be close. I have to think the Bucs want to not only inject themselves back into the very confusing NFC playoff situation we just discussed, but also prove that they will finish better than the Falcons and the Saints. The thing about living in the gutter is that no matter how comfortable your surroundings become, you can always see a house in the distance that you wouldn’t mind living in. The guys down in Tampa who have really worked their asses off to get back above .500 know they missed a perfect chance to go into this very winnable game at 7-6, which would have meant that they’d guarantee a .500 season if they won both games. But that didn’t happen, and I’d have to think that makes them very angry. Although the Lions are coming off of a victory and the Bucs are coming off of a loss, I like Tampa to take this and get back to .500 because you know Winston wants that ROY award. For some reason my brain is drawn to the under here as well.

837’s Prediction:  Buccaneers 23, Rams 13

J-Dub:  $100 on Tampa Bay

Jason from Indiana:  St. Louis

New York Jets (8-5) -3 at Dallas Cowboys (4-9)  (42)  

I’m torn here…The Cowboys looked atrocious last week losing to Green Bay team that still has a lot more problems than their record would suggest, but I really don’t want to watch the Jets in the playoffs. It would be so relieving if the Cowboys could wake up and start to get some kind of something going offensively, but the odds of that happening are about equal to Jerry Jones being able to pass a field sobriety test halfway through the third quarter of this one. The Jets’ offense looked pretty damn good in a win over Tennessee on Sunday, but the Titans can’t tackle a tumbleweed and I’d rather get a blood transfusion from Charlie Sheen than watch any more Jets football. Fitzpatrick has done a pretty decent job of keeping things moving this year when Brandon Marshall is open, but if you look at the numbers it’s not like he’s going to be winning AFC Offensive player of the week anytime soon. The Jets are just straight up boring, period. Their resume is shit, and includes wins over the Redskins, Jaguars, and the Dolphins. They’ve also lost to the Raiders, Bills, Texans, and should have lost to the Giants had Tom Coughlin not handed them the game. It’s going to be hard to want to see more of that football, and if they do get in I hope whoever plays them in the first round cleans their clock so we’re done with them for the year. But at three points with the way Dallas has “played” lately they are a lock to cover for certain. The possibility that the Cowboys could come out and lay a huge egg is very real, so don’t touch the point total here even though the under is quite tempting.

837’s Prediction:  Jets 24, Cowboys 11

J-Dub:  $50 on NY Jets

Jason from Indiana:  New York Jets

Buffalo Bills (6-7) EVEN at Washington Redskins (6-7)  (44)  

Bills fans have to be seriously hating on the fans of the opposition this week, as they find themselves in third place against a team that will likely win their division with the same record. The Redskins are at the moment playing better than anyone else in the NFC Least at the moment, and the Bills aren’t living up to the hype created week-to-week by their loudmouth jackass of a head coach. Suffice to say, this is hardly must-see-TV and if anything you might be able to get a hold of a sportsbook to give you a prop bet so you can take the over on fumbles. I’m not going to get too much into this one, but I know that while Buffalo would have to have a lot of things swing their way to get in Washington controls their own for the most part so they will play as inspired football as a Kirk Cousins-led team can play and I believe they take this one. Total is spot on.

837’s Prediction:  Redskins 24, Bills 20

J-Dub:  $50 on Washington   

Jason from Indiana:  Washington

Kansas City Chiefs (8-5) -8.5 at Baltimore Ravens (4-9)  (42) 

Perhaps the biggest shocker out of all the injuries that have happened over the past month had to have come when Seattle Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls broke his ankle on Sunday at the hands of one Chris Canty. Chris Canty? Really? I thought that guy’s career was over when the Giants cut him three years ago. But such is the case with what has become of the Ravens defense in 2015. Here’s a fun stat:  The Ravens have given up sixty points this year to the Browns alone. Ouch. They will likely continue to struggling against the surging Chiefs, who are looking every bit like the playoff team I so desperately hope they’ll end up becoming. Once again here, the game manager thing comes up, but I think even on the road this one shouldn’t be much of a challenge for them. They have to win every game from here on out to secure a decent seed, but if they can take this one and then knock out a joke of a Browns team two days after Christmas, they will have went from a team that started horribly to having a ten win season. We give a lot of coaches shit on this site for being mediocre, and it’s no secret Andy Reid’s career has seen its share of that. But he is to be commended for turning around what looked like an abortion clinic fire week five into one of the more solid teams in the NFL to watch. Baltimore has brought nothing to the table and have given up on Harbaugh completely, and although I don’t think he’ll lose his job on Black Monday if they haven’t turned it around by week five of next year he’ll be next year’s Joe Philbin. I would actually say avoid betting on this one, but if you can’t stop once you pop go ahead and take Kansas City to cover and I like – but don’t love – the under.

837’s Prediction:  Chiefs 22, Ravens 12

J-Dub:  Disaster of the Week

Jason from Indiana:  Kansas City

Carolina Panthers (13-0) -5.5 at New York Giants (6-7)   (48)  

The Carolina Panthers absolutely destroyed the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday, but that might be an indicator of how bad the Falcons are more than how good Carolina truly is. But “How good IS Carolina?” is a fair question, one that is likely to be answered in the weeks to come. At 13-0, they have become the poster children for how to build a complete football team. With Cam Newton getting a ton of attention and everyone everywhere talking MVP, the discussion about how well of a job Ron Rivera has done seems to have gotten buried and that’s a shame. He’s taken a team that went into the playoffs with a losing record and still won a game and turned them into the only NFL team that is keeping the 1972 Dolphins’ champagne on ice for the time being. Then there’s the Giants. Boy, where to start? They could be 10-3 now, and came very close to almost letting Miami creep back into that Monday night game. They’ve blown so many fourth quarter leads it’s not even funny, and I really can’t say with some of the mistakes they’ve made that they really stand a chance here. Carolina is dangerous as hell when it comes to exploiting the shit those mistakes, so 5.5 points seems like it would be a solid cover. Believe it or not I like the over here because Eli had the most efficient game of his career on Monday night, and although it may be too late he’s at least going to put points on the board. But the Giants defense definitely ain’t gonna show up, and a lot of kids in New Jersey could get free footballs on Sunday.

837’s Prediction:  Panthers 33, Giants 21

J-Dub:  $50 on Carolina

Jason from Indiana:  New York for the straight up upset (SHOT CALLER!)

Chicago Bears (5-8) +5.5 at Minnesota Vikings (8-5)  (43)  

The Bears blew a chance to tie the Redskins last week when kicker Robbie Gould very uncharacteristically missed a field goal at games end, propelling Washington to the top of the NFC East and further digging themselves a hole that is now too deep to get out of. The Vikings are looking to rebound from a tough Thursday night loss at Arizona, one which saw them lose their third of four…the lone win against a Falcons team that they could have probably beat in their sleep. Minnesota is kind of playing at the opposite pace of what they did last year:  They started out very weak last year and really began to pick up steam towards the end, and this year they started out crazy good only to struggle down the stretch. Since they don’t have a whole lot of recent playoff experience, I can’t trust them as a legit contender that can win a postseason game unless this is a blowout of epic proportions. Even if they win, there’s no reason why the Vikings shouldn’t steamroll the Bears at home so that they only have to win one of their last two to finish with ten wins.  The line seems low to me, and the way Vegas is treating the Vikings maybe they know something we either don’t know or have been suspecting but just haven’t had the balls to put in print. I like the under here, the Bears took forever to get their offense going last week. Look for Chicago to score a meaningless touchdown late in this one.

837’s Prediction:  Vikings 26, Bears 14

J-Dub:  $50 on Chicago

Jason from Indiana:  Minnesota

Houston Texans (6-7) OFF at Indianapolis Colts (6-7)  (N/A)  

Last week everyone in the AFC South lost except for Jacksonville. That loss came at the hands of Indianapolis, who lost to the Jags by 35 points. As previously discussed, one of these two teams is going to end up winning the AFC South and if I wanted one to make it obviously I’d select Houston. That said  it’s hard for me to justify either of these teams making the postseason at all, because although I hate the Colts with the burning fire of a thousand crematories the Texans don’t really deserve to be there either. In that surge where they were winning all of those games, while JJ Watt was still playing well and getting all of the press it was their secondary that was winning the sideline battles and keeping Houston afloat. That secondary got eaten alive by a banged up Gronk and a slew of second-stringers on Sunday Night Football, and now even I want to turn my back on them with this being a home game for Indy. But I just can’t do it…the Colts are such a joke and there’s no way the Texans blow this one even if Ryan Leaf throws on pads and has to get back there. I couldn’t imagine a less interesting game to gamble on with the holidays approaching, but I guess if I had pick a team to I like Houston here. Whatever the under it, grab that shit and run like hell.

837’s Prediction:  Texans 19, Colts 17

J-Dub:  Dog of the Week

Jason from Indiana:  Houston

Atlanta Falcons (6-7) +3 at Jacksonville Jaguars (5-8)  (49)  

Putting up zero points in any professional sport other than soccer is fucking humiliating. It has to be one of the worst feelings an athlete can experience, and 53 guys wearing Falcons uniforms made just that happen against Carolina last week like the mob had suitcases full of money waiting for them in the visitor’s locker room. When the other team is taking Facebook pictures at the two-minute warning, it’s safe to say they don’t consider you to be worthy opponents. Speaking of taking out overachieving team, the Jags put Matt Hasselback on the grass all day in their stomping of Indianapolis but for them they are just about out of it if they can’t win this game. I’d love to see them do it. Fuck it, you know what? The season is almost over I’m taking the Jaguars here. The Falcons haven’t brought anything to the table and although they are still in the playoff hunt they shouldn’t be. I like the Jaguars to put Atlanta back in their place – at the middle or bottom of the NFC South where they belong. Let’s see them extend this losing streak and have double digit losses. I’m bailing on all things Matt Ryan from this point forward. Jaguars cover, I laugh uncontrollably, and collect on the over.

837’s Prediction:  Jaguars 43, Falcons 20

J-Dub:  Trap Game of the Week

Jason from Indiana:  Jacksonville

Tennessee Titans (3-10) +15.5 at New England Patriots (11-2)  (47)  

The Patriots got some fantastic news on Monday when they were told that X-rays on Jonathan Freeny’s hand came back negative and was upgraded to questionable for this game. And since we all know in Belichick’s mind that means they will for sure be playing, I’m certain he’ll be hitting the field even though they probably don’t need him to be. After two straight one possession losses, New England came out and smacked the red right off of those awful Texans jerseys on Sunday Night Football and proved they just hit a rough patch. A home game against Tennessee should be just what the doctor ordered for the Patriots, and you know Belichick has plenty of defensive looks for rookies like Marcus. Mariota has looked good at times, but he hasn’t been able to translate what he’s been doing to wins. New England covers easily, and yes I’m on that horse again. Part of me wants to think they won’t but they will as Gronk is back and for real indeed. Like the over, but don’t love it.

837’s Prediction:  Patriots 37, Titans 17

J-Dub:  $25 on Tennessee

Jason from Indiana:  New England

Cleveland Browns (3-10) +16 at Seattle Seahawks (8-5)   (43) 

I can’t believe I’m typing this sentence, but the Seahawks have scored 173 points in their last five games. They’ve seemed to figure out the perfect balance of managing the running game and still pulling explosive plays out of their asses, and they’ve found a real gem in Tyler Lockett who in my opinion should win Rookie of the Year even though I doubt he will. They’ll get a chance to inflate those numbers even more, as they host a bad Browns team that seems to be experimenting with their play calling in the same manner that bad seventies musicians experimented with LSD. Johnny Soccerball won a decision against the 49ers at home on Sunday, but I’m not giving anybody credit for wins against San Francisco in their own building this year. The upside of this for Cleveland is that if they are seriously evaluating Manzeil to see if he’s of NFL caliber in the long-term, at least they’ll get to see how he responds to a defense that is hell bent on destruction from every conceivable angle. I have a feeling the level of trash talking that is going to come from two teams who couldn’t have any less to do with each other is going to be severely elevated just based on ego alone, as you know there will be no shortage of that here. But even after I said all that, sixteen is a huge spread to feel good about so I’m taking the points. Avoid the total altogether.

837’s Prediction:  Seahawks 28, Browns 17

J-Dub:   $100 on the Over

Jason from Indiana:  Seattle

Green Bay Packers (9-4) -3 at Oakland Raiders (6-7)  (46.5)  

Even after they tarred and feathered the Cowboys on Sunday, you get the feeling that the Packers are just not all there. They should have been able to rack up at least 42 against Dallas, and while they will ultimately be judged on what they do in the playoffs like a New England – because of the caliber QB both those teams have – they don’t have the kind of regular season prowess that the Patriots typically do. Case in point – if for some reason Green Bay ends up facing the Arizona Cardinals or the Carolina Panthers on the road the weekend of the divisional playoffs, they are going to get absolutely fucking crushed and everybody reading this knows I’m right. So having to play a team like the Raiders on the road could easily be a trap situation for sure. Oakland is coming off of a win against Denver where their defense played some amazing football in the red zone, but their offense really struggled to put it together when it counted. Had the Broncos not played so poorly they’d likely have lost that game, but they made it happen somehow. If they can make it work they’ll be .500, but for some reason I just don’t have the balls to say they do. Three shouldn’t be that challenging so Green Bay covers and take the under here for sure.

837’s Prediction:  Packers 25, Raiders 16

J-Dub:  $100 on Oakland

Jason from Indiana:  Oakland

Denver Broncos (10-3) +7 at Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)   (44.5) 

The Broncos losing to the Raiders would have easily been the funniest part of this matchup in any other week, but if you saw any of the squabbling that went on at the beginning of the PIT/CIN game last week you’ll know that there was some “fighting” going on but it looked so weak on television. Antonio Brown is one of the best receivers in the game, but I can’t help but wonder why he felt the need to throw an open handed “punch” during the first quarter of that game. Grown men don’t slap each other. I get that it would have been a poor decision on his part to get ejected from what was a very important divisional game against a tough first place rival, but I think our collective respect for the guy dropped a little after seeing his sissyboy antics. At least last year when he kicked Browns punter Spencer Lanning in his dome he did it with force, and most importantly he didn’t look like a pussy in front of the whole country. Speaking of getting kicked in the head, Brock Osweiler got his mangina punched in at home against the Raiders last week in a game where Oakland’s leading rusher had 27 yards on 12 carries and their quarterback was an anorexic 12 for 29 for 135. Hoo boy, am I glad I didn’t watch that one. The Broncos are going to have a really rough time heading forward, they are essentially in just as bad shape as Cincinnati is with their current QB situation, and unless their plan is to win it all in with a dominating defense like the 2000 Ravens did it looks like another early out for them. Pittsburgh has a slight advantage at home, but I’m taking the points here because I don’t feel that confident that the Steelers are dominant enough to cover. It will be close, and if you’re feeling fruity take the over.

837’s Prediction:  Steelers 27, Broncos 22

J-Dub:  $200 on Denver, $200 on the Over

Jason from Indiana:  Pittsburgh 

Miami Dolphins (5-8) +1 at San Diego Chargers (3-10)  (45)   

The Chargers continue their world tour of incompetence by doing a homecoming show at Qualcomm where the Dolphins come to town this Sunday afternoon. I heard Chris Berman spewing some bullshit on The Blitz Monday morning about how “You have to respect Philip Rivers for staying competitive when a lot of these game don’t matter…” Yeah, here’s the thing about that…No. I don’t have to respect a guy who’s on a 3-10 team that has dropped six in a row and whose only home wins have come against the Browns and the Lions. Rivers pulled one over on all of us for years, and there’s no way I’m going to let that continue. The Dolphins somehow couldn’t get the Giants to blow their fourth quarter lead in the Gruden Game, which is unfathomable to even comprehend. But San Diego is just plain awful, and these two teams play in roughly the same climate so I’m taking Miami and the under because there won’t be a ton of offense in this one. Leave the Ambien in your medicine cabinet, you won’t need it.

837’s Prediction:  Dolphins 10, Chargers 6

J-Dub:  $50 on Miami

Jason from Indiana:  San Diego

Cincinnati Bengals (10-3) -4.5 at San Francisco 49ers (4-9)  (40.5) 

I have a confession to make: I probably watch the last drive of Super Bowl XXIII late at night more than the end of any other football game. It’s just a magical and masterful piece of NFL history, but this game probably won’t be nearly as eventful or produce the same result. The Bengals lost Andy Dalton in the Pittsburgh game, so the reigns will be turned over to one AJ McCarron…a guy whose girlfriend makes more headlines than he does. He made a couple of nice throws in that game, but I have more faith that the lead singer of Staind has a great relationship with his parents than I do in AJ McCarron winning important games for the Bengals. He’ll win this one, but with Denver next and the playoffs coming there might not be a guy over the past ten years who’ll be thrown to the wolves more intensely than this cat. The 49ers are so far beyond bad it’s not even funny, and I’m out of jokes to tell about that team. Kaepernick isn’t funny, Gabbert isn’t funny, and aside from that one monster fart that Jim Tomsula ripped at that press conference back in October he isn’t funny either. The Bengals win but don’t cover so take the points and avoid the total because we really don’t know what an AJ McCarron start looks like just yet.

837’s Prediction:  Bengals 17, 49ers 14

J-Dub:  $50 on Cincinnati

Jason from Indiana:  San Francisco

Arizona Cardinals (11-2) -3.5 at Philadelphia Eagles (6-7)   (50.5)

Philadelphia has won their last two games, but they are in for a real surprise if they think Arizona is going to be a cakewalk. Although they didn’t do it in convincing fashion, the Cardinals were able to sneak out of the Minnesota game with a win and they’ve now taken seven games in a row. That’s pretty brutal, especially when you consider they played the Bengals and the Seahawks in that stretch. The Eagles took out the Bills Sunday, but are still probably a little bit hungover from their win against the Patriots in Foxboro the week before. I am still very suspect of the Eagles’ abilities…They are really just a couple of poorly thrown balls away from getting stomped in the same fashion they did in the two weeks previous to the New England game. In case you forgot about it (and I’m sure most Eagles fans have given their drinking habits) they lost each of those games by an average of twenty nine and a half points to the Bucs and the Lions. This one probably won’t be nearly as much of a blowout as I want it to be, but they will cover and Philly will go back to being the same Eagles team they were when they couldn’t do anything right. 50.5 seems reasonable, but I am looking for this to be a shootout on both ends.

837’s Prediction:  Cardinals 33, Eagles 24

J-Dub:  Lock of the week – $300 on Arizona

Jason from Indiana:  Arizona

Detroit Lions (4-9) +3 at New Orleans Saints (5-8)   (50.5)  

Both the Detroit Lions and the New Orleans Saints did not live up to expectations this year, and both could likely lose their head coaches at season’s end. Regardless of what happens in this game, those decisions have probably already been made and nothing short of a miracle is going to change the fate of Caldwell or Payton. But if they’re gone, I can’t really fault either franchise for making a change. The Lions almost won the NFC North last year, and some would argue they should have won the Wild Card game against Dallas that was marred by horrid officiating. It probably doesn’t help Payton a whole lot that Drew Brees is still putting up impressive numbers towards the end of his career while nobody else in that locker room is listening to a goddamn word either one of them are saying, but they are now six years removed from that Super Bowl win and I bet Tom Coughlin would say “tough shit” to Payton after they both likely meet the same fate that cold January Monday morning in 2016. Looking ahead to next year it probably wouldn’t hurt for the Saints to bolster their offensive line and running game as Brees gets into the later stages of his career, and the Lions are going to have to give Stafford more pieces to work with as well as beef up their defensive line to the strength it was when both Suh and Cliff Avril were on that side of the football a few years back. But seriously, fuck this game. Take the over and don’t get near the spread.

837’s Prediction:  Saints 34, Lions 31

J-Dub:  $25 on the Over

Jason from Indiana:  New Orleans

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Eight Thirty Seven